Brexit timeline: key dates in the UK’s divorce from the EU
The EU has given the UK a choice on Brexit: accept Theresa May’s agreement, leave the bloc without a deal, remain members for a long period, or revoke the Article 50 exit process altogether.
Britain — and in particular Mrs May and the House of Commons — has until April 12 to decide.
The UK prime minister’s deal has been rejected by the Commons no fewer than four times, even on March 29, the date long earmarked as Brexit day — until Britain asked for a delay to break the parliamentary impasse.
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Cabinet meeting Mrs May’s badly divided cabinet will gather on Tuesday morning to consider a range of options, all of which pose serious problems. The meeting is slated to last up to five hours, with a statement from the prime minister expected in the afternoon. The choices are unpalatable.
One path would be to appeal to rebel Eurosceptic Conservatives and Labour MPs from pro-Brexit constituencies to get the deal through — but the parliamentary maths is challenging at best.
Another would be to pivot towards a softer Brexit to win over an alternative coalition of pro-EU MPs, but this could split the Tory party. Alternatively Mrs May could decide on a still more dramatic course of action, such as embarking on a no-deal Brexit, calling a second referendum or triggering a general election.
LATER IN THE WEEK
Moment of truth for May’s deal Because of the difficulty of all the alternatives, some of which Mrs May has repeatedly ruled out, the prime minister is highly likely to return to the Commons for yet another vote on her deal. She needs 30 MPs to switch sides and will be focusing on Tory and Labour rebels, because her normal parliamentary allies in Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist party seem steadfast in their opposition to the withdrawal treaty.
One option Downing Street is considering is a “run-off” between Mrs May’s deal and the winner of Monday’s indicative votes. The thinking is that, faced with a choice between her agreement and a softer Brexit, such as membership in a customs union, some Conservative Eurosceptic holdouts could finally come round to Mrs May’s side.
APRIL 10 EU summit
As soon as Mrs May’s withdrawal agreement was voted down by MPs in late March, Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council of EU member states, called an emergency leaders’ summit for April 10.
But EU capitals underlined they had no further solutions to offer the UK prime minister . If Mrs May is not able to get her deal through by April 10, she will have to consider whether to leave the EU without a deal or ask for a longer extension of the UK’s membership of the bloc.
APRIL 12 The new deadline — Brexit day?
This is the new date when a no-deal Brexit could take place, after the EU’s decision to delay the UK’s departure from March 29.
The reason the EU chose April 12 is because under law this is the deadline for the UK to decide whether to hold European Parliament elections. Mr Tusk says that, unless the UK decides to take part in the elections by this time, “the option of a long extension will automatically become impossible” because it would undermine the bloc’s legal order if the UK remained a member after the elections start on May 23 but did not take part in the votes.
So, assuming that Mrs May’s deal has not passed, Britain has to decide by April 12 whether it will leave the EU without a deal, whether to accept a long delay involving holding European parliamentary elections or whether to revoke Brexit altogether.
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